Korean companies are already buying these certificates

There is one reason it is hard to leave this market filed under "someone else's problem".

The published figures

On 17 April 2024 the Sustainable Aviation Buyers Alliance (SABA) announced contracts for members to buy sustainable aviation fuel certificates (SAFc), and published the following alongside:

• Close to $200 million committed to certificate purchases over five years
• Corresponding to roughly 50 million gallons of sustainable aviation fuel
• 500,000 tCO2e in reductions
• The fuel is stated as 80% lower in carbon intensity than conventional jet fuel, third-party certified

SkyNRG, World Energy and Twelve appear as suppliers; Alaska Airlines, JetBlue and Southwest as airlines. 14 buying companies are named, and one of them is Samsung Biologics.

Working out a unit price

Dividing the two published figures gives a unit price.

• $200 million ÷ 500,000 tCO2e ≈ $400 per tCO2e
• $200 million ÷ 50 million gallons ≈ $4 per gallon

One thing to be clear about. These are not published prices; they are values obtained by dividing two published figures. And carrying them anywhere means carrying three things with them.

First, this is sustainable aviation fuel, not road freight insetting. Different fuel, different scheme — they do not belong on one line. Second, it is a five-year commitment, not delivered performance. Third, as the same announcement states, sustainable aviation fuel is under 0.5% of global jet fuel supply and trades at a premium. This is the price in a thin part of the market.

What stands after all that

That this market moves in multi-year contracts worth hundreds of millions rather than in pilots, and that a Korean company is already on the buyer list. Both are checkable against published material.

※ This article cites published material. The companies and bodies named have no contractual relationship with us.

This article expands one section of LCS EAC special report 2, How the Price Is Set. The full report works from the SABA press release, DP World's own pages and SBTi Evidence Synthesis Report Part 2 as primary sources, and marks published figures separately from values derived by dividing them.